It was the closest we have come to a nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis. And it was entirely avoidable.
"If Pakistan had nuclear weapons in 2002, we would have used them against India."
The speaker was a senior Pakistani military official, reflecting on a tense moment in the longstanding conflict between the two South Asian rivals. Following a deadly militant attack on the Indian parliament that year, India mobilized its forces along the border with Pakistan, and Islamabad responded in kind. As the two sides exchanged fire, both countries went on high alert, and the world held its breath.
Thankfully, the crisis was defused before it could escalate further. But the episode underscored how close the two nuclear-armed countries had come to the brink, and how easily they could get there again.
India and Pakistan conducted their first nuclear tests within weeks of each other in 1998, announcing to the world that they had joined the exclusive club of nuclear-armed states. Since then, they have engaged in a dangerous and destabilizing nuclear arms race, developing new delivery systems and expanding their arsenals. Today, each country possesses around 150 nuclear warheads, according to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The arms race has been driven by a number of factors, including security concerns, domestic politics, and international prestige. In India, the nuclear program has been seen as a necessary deterrent against threats from China and Pakistan, as well as a symbol of the country's status as a rising power. In Pakistan, the nuclear program has been seen as a response to India's perceived military and economic superiority, and as a way to counter India's conventional military advantage.
Despite the risks and costs involved, neither country has shown any sign of stopping or scaling back its nuclear buildup. In fact, both countries are reportedly developing new nuclear-capable missiles, raising the possibility of even greater strategic instabilities and risks of inadvertent escalation.
The dangers of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan are impossible to overstate. With both countries possessing large arsenals of nuclear weapons, any conflict between them would have catastrophic consequences for the region and the world at large.
A nuclear exchange between the two countries could lead to the deaths of millions of people, as well as widespread environmental damage and global economic disruption. The fallout from the conflict could spread across the region and even beyond, posing a threat to the health and security of people around the world.
In addition to the risks of intentional use, there is also the danger of accidental or unintentional escalation. Even a small-scale military exchange between India and Pakistan could quickly spiral out of control, with each side feeling pressured to escalate in response to perceived threats.
In conclusion, the nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan poses a grave threat to regional and global security. The risks of a nuclear conflict between the two countries are too high to ignore, and urgent action is needed to reduce tensions and prevent the escalation of hostilities.
Specifically, policymakers should:
By taking these steps, policymakers can reduce the risk of a nuclear collision course in South Asia, and work toward a more stable and peaceful future for the region and the world.
Curated by Team Akash.Mittal.Blog
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