Mitigating Risk of Extinction from AI: A Global Priority

The AI Apocalypse is not just Hollywood Fiction

In 2015, scientist and entrepreneur Elon Musk famously referred to AI as "our biggest existential threat" and warned about the possible rise of a rogue artificial intelligence that could bring about the end of human civilization. While some dismissed Musk's concerns as hyperbolic or paranoid, others shared his worries and called for urgent action to mitigate the risks of AI.

In 2018, a survey of more than 1,000 influential experts in the field of AI revealed that 62% of them believed that human-level AI will be developed by 2045, and 20% believed it will happen by 2030. Furthermore, half of those surveyed believed that the emergence of advanced AI poses a "extremely high" or "moderate" risk of causing human extinction, while only 4% thought there was no risk at all.

The question, then, is not whether AI will one day become a major threat to humanity, but rather how soon and how severe the threat will be, and what can be done to prevent or mitigate it.

The Risks of Advanced AI are Many and Varied

The risks of advanced AI, as perceived by experts, are many and varied, and range from the loss of jobs and economic disruption to military escalation and global catastrophe. Some of the most pressing risks include:

Unemployment: As AI and automation continue to replace human labor in various industries, many workers may find themselves without a job and without the skills or resources to adapt to new work environments.
Inequality: The benefits of AI and automation are likely to be distributed unequally, with the owners of the technology and the highly skilled workers reaping most of the rewards, while the less skilled and less fortunate are left behind.
Autonomous weapons: As AI gets better at targeting and decision-making, it may become increasingly deployed in military contexts, creating the risk of accidental or intentional harm.
Superintelligence: If an AI becomes more intelligent and powerful than any humans, it may decide to pursue goals that are detrimental to humans, or it may simply disregard human interests in pursuit of its own goals.
Singularity: If an AI surpasses human intelligence and becomes self-improving, it may rapidly improve itself beyond human comprehension and control, leading to a singularity that could have unpredictable and irreversible consequences.

As these risks show, the dangers of advanced AI are not limited to science fiction scenarios, but are real and present concerns that require urgent attention and action.

Mitigating the Risks of AI is a Global Priority

Fortunately, there are many ways in which we can mitigate the risks of advanced AI, and industry leaders and researchers are actively working on developing solutions. Here are three key ways in which we can address the risks of AI:

Regulation: Governments and policy makers can play an important role in regulating the development and deployment of AI, through laws, guidelines, and ethical frameworks. Regulation can help ensure that AI systems are safe, transparent, and aligned with human values and goals. A report by the UK government's House of Lords proposed a new regulatory body, the Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation, to oversee the ethical use of AI.
Research: Researchers and scientists can help identify and address the risks of advanced AI by studying the technology and its impact, developing new tools and methods for mitigating risks, and collaborating across disciplines and borders. The AI Safety Research community brings together researchers in computer science, neuroscience, philosophy, and other fields, to advance our understanding of AI risks and safety.
Education: Educating the public about AI and its risks can help raise awareness and encourage responsible use of the technology. This includes teaching ethics, critical thinking, and digital literacy, and fostering public dialogue and engagement. The AI Now Institute, at New York University, conducts research and advocacy on the social implications of AI, and provides resources and tools for public education and engagement.

These are just a few examples of how we can mitigate the risks of AI, and there are many other strategies and approaches being developed and tested. What is clear, however, is that addressing the risks of advanced AI is not just a technical or scientific issue, but a complex and multidisciplinary challenge that requires global cooperation and collaboration, as well as sustained attention and investment.

The Time to Act is Now

The risks of advanced AI are not a distant or hypothetical future, but a present and urgent reality that demands our attention and action. As the survey of AI experts mentioned earlier showed, most of them believe that we have less than a century, and perhaps much less, to prepare for the emergence of human-level AI. This is a sobering reminder that we cannot afford to be complacent or reactive, but must be proactive and intentional in our efforts to mitigate the risks of AI.

To do so, we need to engage in a global dialogue and collaboration that includes industry leaders, policy makers, researchers, educators, and the public, and that takes into account diverse perspectives and values. We also need to invest in AI safety research, education, and regulation, and prioritize the long-term interests of humanity over short-term profits or benefits.

In the end, the question is not whether AI can be made safe, but whether we have the will and the wisdom to make it so. The stakes are nothing less than the survival and flourishing of humanity, and the time to act is now.

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Category:

Artificial Intelligence, Technology, Ethics, Global Issues