Nepal's Hydropower Drive Puts India Over China - But What's the Risk?

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It was a bright summer day in Nepal when Poonam Thakuri, a 26-year-old journalist, decided to explore the country's hydropower potential. She wanted to see for herself how Nepal's rivers, cascading down its hills, could be harnessed to power its homes and industries.

As she travelled from one hydropower project to another, Thakuri was struck by the scale of the country's vision. Nepal, a landlocked nation in the Himalayas, has the potential to generate 83,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity from its rivers, according to government estimates. That's nearly 40 times its current electricity consumption.

But the reality on the ground was something else. Many of the hydropower projects Thakuri visited were either stalled or delayed due to lack of investment, bureaucratic hurdles or community opposition. Some had been abandoned halfway, leaving half-built structures and broken equipment.

"I realized that the hydropower potential of Nepal is enormous, but the implementation is fraught with challenges," Thakuri said. "It's not just about building dams and turbines, it's about balancing economic growth with social and environmental concerns."

Nepal's hydropower journey is attracting attention from India and China, its giant neighbours, who are seeking to secure their energy future. India, with a population of 1.4 billion, has a growing appetite for electricity, driven by its industrialization and urbanization. China, the world's largest consumer of energy, is looking to diversify its energy sources and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

For both countries, Nepal's abundant water resources could be a game changer. But the race for hydropower also brings risks and challenges, as competing interests, geopolitical tensions, environmental impacts and social issues collide.

India's Quest for Hydropower

India has had a long history of building large hydropower projects, beginning with the 345 MW Sardar Sarovar Dam on the Narmada river in the 1980s. Since then, it has built several mega dams, including the 1,200 MW Tehri Dam on the Bhagirathi river and the 2,000 MW Subansiri Dam on the Brahmaputra river.

Despite its experience, India's hydropower sector has faced major setbacks in recent years. Its ambitious plan to build 10,000 MW of hydropower in the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh has been stalled due to political opposition, environmental concerns and financial constraints.

Moreover, India's push for hydropower has faced resistance from local communities who often bear the brunt of displacement, loss of livelihoods and environmental degradation. The 2,000 MW Lower Subansiri Dam, for instance, has faced protests from residents of Assam who fear it will trigger floods, landslides and the erosion of riverbanks.

In this context, Nepal emerges as a key partner for India's hydropower ambitions. As per reports, Nepal has the potential to export up to 17,000 MW of electricity to India, which could help India meet its energy demand and reduce its carbon footprint.

India has already signed several agreements with Nepal to build cross-border transmission lines and import hydropower. The 900 MW Arun III project, being built by an Indian company in Nepal, is expected to export 80% of its electricity to India. The 600 MW Upper Karnali and 900 MW Arun V projects, also being built by Indian companies, have received clearance from Nepal's government.

India's engagement with Nepal's hydropower sector has increased its leverage over Nepal's politics and economy, which has traditionally been influenced by China. As per a recent report, India's investment in Nepal's hydropower sector has surpassed that of China, making India the largest investor in Nepal's energy sector.

But India's pursuit of hydropower in Nepal is not without risks. It could lead to the exploitation of Nepal's resources, trigger local conflicts and exacerbate environmental issues. Moreover, India's close ties with Nepal could fuel geopolitical tensions with China, which has also been eyeing Nepal's hydropower potential.

China's Bid for Hydropower

China's interest in Nepal's hydropower sector dates back to the 1950s, when China built the Friendship Highway to connect Tibet with Nepal. Since then, China has been involved in several hydropower projects in Nepal, including the 750 MW West Seti Dam, the 1,200 MW Budhi Gandaki Dam and the 400 MW Tamor Dam.

However, China's involvement in Nepal's hydropower sector has been constrained by its poor relations with Nepal's government, which has often sought to balance its ties with India and China. Moreover, Chinese companies have faced hurdles in securing financing, land acquisition and regulatory clearances in Nepal.

In recent years, China has been stepping up its engagement with Nepal's hydropower sector, offering to build several mega dams, including the $5 billion West Seti Dam and the $3 billion Budhi Gandaki Dam. China has also proposed to build a cross-border transmission line to import electricity from Nepal's hydropower projects.

However, China's bid for hydropower in Nepal faces several challenges. It could face opposition from India, which sees Nepal as its traditional sphere of influence. Moreover, it could trigger environmental and social issues in Nepal, where many hydropower projects have been stalled due to community protests and environmental concerns.

Nepal's Balancing Act

Nepal's hydropower drive is caught between the competing interests of India and China, which are seeking to secure their energy future and gain influence in the region. At the same time, Nepal faces challenges in balancing economic growth with social and environmental concerns.

To address these challenges, Nepal needs to adopt a comprehensive and participatory approach to hydropower development, one that takes into account the interests of all stakeholders, including local communities, civil society, government agencies and investors. This approach could involve a mix of policy reforms, institutional capacity building, community engagement and regulatory oversight.

Moreover, Nepal needs to explore alternative models of hydropower development, such as mini-hydropower projects that are better suited to local contexts and have less social and environmental impacts. Nepal also needs to strengthen its renewable energy sector, particularly solar and wind power, which could provide decentralized and off-grid solutions to rural areas.

In conclusion, Nepal's hydropower drive could be a source of economic growth and energy security, but it also faces risks and challenges. Nepal needs to adopt a holistic and sustainable approach to hydropower development, one that balances economic, social and environmental concerns and ensures the participation of all stakeholders.

Reference URLs:

- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323642478_The_Chinese_Hydropower_Race_in_Nepal_What_are_the_risks

- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/9/5/nepals-huge-hydroelectricity-potential-buries-its-poor

- https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/hydropower-generation-key-to-powering-india-nepal-expert/75867590

- https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/08/29/nepal-harnessing-its-water-power-to-light-up-southern-asia

- https://kathmandupost.com/money/2021/06/22/india-becomes-largest-hydropower-investor-in-nepal-overtakes-china

Hashtags: #Hydropower #EnergySecurity #Nepal #India #China #RenewableEnergy #Environment #Sustainability

Article Category: Energy and Environment

Curated by Team Akash.Mittal.Blog

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